lfwf
08-06 02:54 PM
OP is long gone. Your post is full of big brave words and no substance. If you want to have a discussion and demonstrate your "intellect", please make some rational arguments and back them up. There is no lawsuit discussion here, just a debate on the merits of BS+5 PD porting
NKR,
When you give reds, learn to read the whole post. I pointed out that since Op was gone, no one here was really filing a lawsuit but we were debating the issue. The thread may be about anything, so what? The discussion ahd turned to a personalized bashing of anyone that dared file for EB2.
Reading your posts I see that you got a red from someone, guess you decided to lash out in return. Fitting!
NKR,
When you give reds, learn to read the whole post. I pointed out that since Op was gone, no one here was really filing a lawsuit but we were debating the issue. The thread may be about anything, so what? The discussion ahd turned to a personalized bashing of anyone that dared file for EB2.
Reading your posts I see that you got a red from someone, guess you decided to lash out in return. Fitting!
wallpaper 2011 2012 messi vs ronaldo
rsdang
08-11 04:54 PM
A man was on the water for his weekly fishing trip. He began his day with an 8-pound trout on the first cast and a 7-pounder on the second
On the third cast he had just caught his first ever trout over 10 pounds when his cell phone rang.
It was a doctor notifying him that his wife had just been in a terrible accident and was in critical condition and in the ICU. The man told the doctor to inform his wife where he was and that he'd be there as soon as possible. As he hung up he realized he was leaving what was shaping up to be his best day ever on the water.
He decided to get in a couple of more casts before heading to the hospital. He ended up fishing the re! st of the morning, finishing his trip with a stringer like he'd never seen, with 3 trout over 10 pounds.
He was jubilant .
Then he remembered his wife. Feeling guilty, he dashed to the hospital.
H e saw the doctor in the corridor and asked about his wife's condition.
The doctor glared at him and shouted, "You went ahead and finished your fishing trip didn't you! I hope you're proud of yourself! While you were out for the past four hours enjoying yourself on the pond, your wife has been languishing in the ICU! It's just as well you went ahead and finished, because it will be more than likely the last fishing trip you ever take!"
"For the rest of her life she will require 'round the clock care. And you'll be her care giver forever!"
The man was feeling so guilty he broke ! down and sobbed.
The doctor then chuckled and said, "I'm just messing with you. She's dead. What'd you catch?"
On the third cast he had just caught his first ever trout over 10 pounds when his cell phone rang.
It was a doctor notifying him that his wife had just been in a terrible accident and was in critical condition and in the ICU. The man told the doctor to inform his wife where he was and that he'd be there as soon as possible. As he hung up he realized he was leaving what was shaping up to be his best day ever on the water.
He decided to get in a couple of more casts before heading to the hospital. He ended up fishing the re! st of the morning, finishing his trip with a stringer like he'd never seen, with 3 trout over 10 pounds.
He was jubilant .
Then he remembered his wife. Feeling guilty, he dashed to the hospital.
H e saw the doctor in the corridor and asked about his wife's condition.
The doctor glared at him and shouted, "You went ahead and finished your fishing trip didn't you! I hope you're proud of yourself! While you were out for the past four hours enjoying yourself on the pond, your wife has been languishing in the ICU! It's just as well you went ahead and finished, because it will be more than likely the last fishing trip you ever take!"
"For the rest of her life she will require 'round the clock care. And you'll be her care giver forever!"
The man was feeling so guilty he broke ! down and sobbed.
The doctor then chuckled and said, "I'm just messing with you. She's dead. What'd you catch?"
Ramba
08-05 02:28 PM
Good points, but let me put a counter argument. Two people , one is named SunnySurya and the other is named Mr XYZ. Both came to the USA at the same time in 1999. The difference was SunnySurya came here for his masters and the other guy came here through shady means.
Mr XYZ was able to file his green card in 2002 in EB3 category based on his shady arrangements with his employer, whereas Mr SunnySurya continued to do right and socially acceptable things i.e. studied, got a job and then after several years this big company filled his green card in EB2 category in 2006.
On the other hand after strugling for several years Mr. XYZ has collected enough years on his resume to be elligible for EB2. Now he want to port his PD
SunnySurya's PD is 2006 and Mr. XYZ PD is 2002. Now if Mr. XYZ want to stand in EB2 line, I wonder what problems SunnySurya can have???:confused:
Agree. Like labor subsitution scandal/abuse, you should have a documenterly evidence to go after this scam (creating duplicate EB2 job just to cut-short the line). If it is a USCIS rule, they may ripoff this ( like labor sub.). It is long way to go. The nut shell-- as long us GC is in high demand, people abuse the system. DOL, USCIS, knows this. Thatswhy DOL is auditing most EB2 labor certification. In my view, who ever filed EB2 between 2000 to 2004 (when EB3 was current) are true-EB2. After 2005, most of the EB2 filings are cut-short the EB3 que. Most of the cases not based on actual MINIMUM requirements for the job. Everyone knows this..
Mr XYZ was able to file his green card in 2002 in EB3 category based on his shady arrangements with his employer, whereas Mr SunnySurya continued to do right and socially acceptable things i.e. studied, got a job and then after several years this big company filled his green card in EB2 category in 2006.
On the other hand after strugling for several years Mr. XYZ has collected enough years on his resume to be elligible for EB2. Now he want to port his PD
SunnySurya's PD is 2006 and Mr. XYZ PD is 2002. Now if Mr. XYZ want to stand in EB2 line, I wonder what problems SunnySurya can have???:confused:
Agree. Like labor subsitution scandal/abuse, you should have a documenterly evidence to go after this scam (creating duplicate EB2 job just to cut-short the line). If it is a USCIS rule, they may ripoff this ( like labor sub.). It is long way to go. The nut shell-- as long us GC is in high demand, people abuse the system. DOL, USCIS, knows this. Thatswhy DOL is auditing most EB2 labor certification. In my view, who ever filed EB2 between 2000 to 2004 (when EB3 was current) are true-EB2. After 2005, most of the EB2 filings are cut-short the EB3 que. Most of the cases not based on actual MINIMUM requirements for the job. Everyone knows this..
2011 Cristiano Ronaldo Vs. Lionel
485Mbe4001
08-06 01:52 PM
red dot for this post.... are you nuts or someone touched a raw nerve or you have lots of spare time to create controversies:confused:
Lets petition USCIS to scrap EB3 and send them home. Rolling_flood needs his GC real bad... We are unavailable today and will be U in 2010. you can have our 3k visa for your category.
Have you never jumped a line in your life, i bet you have.
We see it all the time, people will find ways to move ahead and so will you..nothing wrong with that. What is wrong is demeaning or ridiculing a group for you selfish needs...good luck with the law suit.. the least it will do is highlight problem our to a greater audience (Y).
Lets petition USCIS to scrap EB3 and send them home. Rolling_flood needs his GC real bad... We are unavailable today and will be U in 2010. you can have our 3k visa for your category.
Have you never jumped a line in your life, i bet you have.
We see it all the time, people will find ways to move ahead and so will you..nothing wrong with that. What is wrong is demeaning or ridiculing a group for you selfish needs...good luck with the law suit.. the least it will do is highlight problem our to a greater audience (Y).
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LostInGCProcess
01-07 05:28 PM
Anyway, i'll sign off and i won't post any more message in this thread again.
On page 8 or 9 you said you would not post any more message and still you continue to post !!!! Don't say anything that you can't keep up with.
On page 8 or 9 you said you would not post any more message and still you continue to post !!!! Don't say anything that you can't keep up with.
rimzhim
04-09 12:02 PM
Great. Maybe you should put out an ad in the newspaper. Or maybe you should say in your EB1 petition "My boss believes that I am a leader". That ought to do it. I am sure USCIS will approve your EB1 right away when they see that your boss believes that you are a leader.
My boss too believes many things. He believes that I can walk and chew gum at the same time. Maybe I should tell my parents about what my Boss believes. That would make them proud.
Seriously rimzhim, you are thinking that only you and a handful of others with Ph.Ds are providing service to this country and others like "Consultants" are just getting a free ride. I am not a consultant myself, but I do see really smart and capable professionals doing consulting. You need to get out of your lab more. There are plenty of consultants in IBM, Accenture etc. who are some of the best brains in IT and management and who are either on H1B or used to be on H1B.
Quite contrary, the best brains actually prefer consulting beacuse there is more money to be made in it. Many H1Bs doing fulltime jobs start consulting when they get greencards because consulting pays more.
If you are really a scientist, you should be doing something good with your time rather than trolling the posts of EB3 losers like myself.
Go shake some test-tubes or something. Or go to your boss's office and he will tell you how great you are.
But I never said I am brighter than others who don't have Ph.Ds. In fact, dumbasses like me spend time in labs trying to discover new algorithms instead of making the big bucks in the industry that uses these algorithms :)
Really rimzhim, stick to research. I dont think you will ever be a leader and lead in anything.
You said I will never be a leader, and so I told you what my boss thinks. I don't actually think so.
Also, I have been anonymous too long. I think I need to get rid of that before posting more messages here.
My boss too believes many things. He believes that I can walk and chew gum at the same time. Maybe I should tell my parents about what my Boss believes. That would make them proud.
Seriously rimzhim, you are thinking that only you and a handful of others with Ph.Ds are providing service to this country and others like "Consultants" are just getting a free ride. I am not a consultant myself, but I do see really smart and capable professionals doing consulting. You need to get out of your lab more. There are plenty of consultants in IBM, Accenture etc. who are some of the best brains in IT and management and who are either on H1B or used to be on H1B.
Quite contrary, the best brains actually prefer consulting beacuse there is more money to be made in it. Many H1Bs doing fulltime jobs start consulting when they get greencards because consulting pays more.
If you are really a scientist, you should be doing something good with your time rather than trolling the posts of EB3 losers like myself.
Go shake some test-tubes or something. Or go to your boss's office and he will tell you how great you are.
But I never said I am brighter than others who don't have Ph.Ds. In fact, dumbasses like me spend time in labs trying to discover new algorithms instead of making the big bucks in the industry that uses these algorithms :)
Really rimzhim, stick to research. I dont think you will ever be a leader and lead in anything.
You said I will never be a leader, and so I told you what my boss thinks. I don't actually think so.
Also, I have been anonymous too long. I think I need to get rid of that before posting more messages here.
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rinku1112
12-30 09:25 PM
The Pakistani security establishment believes, and there is probably some truth in it, that India is already supporting groups that are trying to destabilize Pakistan. And because of that, they view India as an existential threat to Pakistan, and justify their own activities.
Its quite a vicious circle.....
It would be a viscious circle if prime tragets inside Pakistan were being attacked 'visciously' by militant groups enjoying 'moral & political' support from India. Is there a militant group worth its 'Jahadi' salt inside Pakistan that enjoys this 'moral & political' support from India now? Either the Indian side is doing a very poor job of covert ops or not doing anything at all. There is almost no cost to Pakistan from India from Proxy war. I am suggesting increasing the cost for Pakistan and/or anti-Indian groups/institutions inside Pakistan for such attacks in India.
This proxy war (or viscious circle) is almost exclusively being fought on the Indian soil now. All I am saying is move the center of this viscious circle to Paki soil rather than fight it out on Indian soil.
But I agree that this thread is irrelevant to this forum and I apologize in advance for perpetuating this thread. My last post here.
Its quite a vicious circle.....
It would be a viscious circle if prime tragets inside Pakistan were being attacked 'visciously' by militant groups enjoying 'moral & political' support from India. Is there a militant group worth its 'Jahadi' salt inside Pakistan that enjoys this 'moral & political' support from India now? Either the Indian side is doing a very poor job of covert ops or not doing anything at all. There is almost no cost to Pakistan from India from Proxy war. I am suggesting increasing the cost for Pakistan and/or anti-Indian groups/institutions inside Pakistan for such attacks in India.
This proxy war (or viscious circle) is almost exclusively being fought on the Indian soil now. All I am saying is move the center of this viscious circle to Paki soil rather than fight it out on Indian soil.
But I agree that this thread is irrelevant to this forum and I apologize in advance for perpetuating this thread. My last post here.
2010 Cristiano Ronaldo Pictures vs
hiralal
06-06 10:58 PM
to buy another house (if it is not distress property / from auction) just to put it on rent is stupidity ..risk is good if it is calculated ..to take foolish risk is foolishness ..anyway that is me. In this Country land is virtually unlimited !!! demand is low (see immigration ..they give majority GC's to people when they are 50 - 60 years old) and those who are young have smaller families because of high cost of living, way of living.
to buy a house to put it on rent is big loss as there are millions of houses already competing for renters
ONE more reason for those who are on H1/ EAD is that 90% of then job postings on DICE and other places ask for only citizens or GC holders.
to buy a house to put it on rent is big loss as there are millions of houses already competing for renters
ONE more reason for those who are on H1/ EAD is that 90% of then job postings on DICE and other places ask for only citizens or GC holders.
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rsdang
08-29 10:59 AM
A drunk walks out of a bar with a key in his hand and he is stumbling back and forth.
A cop on the beat sees him and approaches "Can I help you sir"
"Yessh! Ssssomebody ssstole my carrr" the man replies!
The cop asks "Where was your car the last time you saw it "
"It wasss on the end of thisshh key" the man replies.
About that time the cop looks down and sees the man's weiner hanging out
of his fly for all the world to see.
He asks the man "Sir are you aware that you are exposing yourself "
Momentarily confused, the drunk looks down at his crotch and without
missing a beat, blurts out.........."Holy crap! My girlfriend's gone
too!
A cop on the beat sees him and approaches "Can I help you sir"
"Yessh! Ssssomebody ssstole my carrr" the man replies!
The cop asks "Where was your car the last time you saw it "
"It wasss on the end of thisshh key" the man replies.
About that time the cop looks down and sees the man's weiner hanging out
of his fly for all the world to see.
He asks the man "Sir are you aware that you are exposing yourself "
Momentarily confused, the drunk looks down at his crotch and without
missing a beat, blurts out.........."Holy crap! My girlfriend's gone
too!
hair Cristiano Ronaldo Vs Messi
Ahimsa
11-13 08:42 AM
[B]... BILL TUCKER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Microsoft's Bill Gates this week fired the first shot in the coming fight for more cheap foreign labor. Gates warning of a shortage of high-tech workers that his company needs to be competitive...
We can ignore Lou on his yet another one-sided propaganda.
But I think, if Lou is fair-minded (which he is not), he should have called Bill Gates to discuss on H-1B not Kim B.
H-1B reform is an off-topic right now for us.
Also, IV is neither supportive of or against H-1B increase.
US lawmakers already started discussing to reform H-1B with point-based system.
Senate had a hearing on Sep 14, 2006:
http://help.senate.gov/Hearings/2006_09_14/2006_09_14.html
Lou thinks lawmakers do not know anything about refoming H-1B.
So, we can ignore Lou for ever.
We can ignore Lou on his yet another one-sided propaganda.
But I think, if Lou is fair-minded (which he is not), he should have called Bill Gates to discuss on H-1B not Kim B.
H-1B reform is an off-topic right now for us.
Also, IV is neither supportive of or against H-1B increase.
US lawmakers already started discussing to reform H-1B with point-based system.
Senate had a hearing on Sep 14, 2006:
http://help.senate.gov/Hearings/2006_09_14/2006_09_14.html
Lou thinks lawmakers do not know anything about refoming H-1B.
So, we can ignore Lou for ever.
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alisa
12-27 01:44 AM
Look at this way...
Obama is planning to increase troops in Afghanistan. US is now doing cross-border attacks in pakistan. When he increases the troop level, it would only increase further hitting the core soverignity of pakistan.
The supercop is completely preoccupied in transition with the messiah of hope taking oath on jan 20th. It would need few weeks for him to settle down.
Pakistan is fractured with ISI's own trained militants causing havoc in Balochistan and NWFP. They are militants from Punjab and POK who are helping the tribes and Taliban. Taliban is hiding for the past 7 years and only the last two year have seen such a tremendous increase in attacks.
Without Punjab militant's expertise (with kashmir on-the-job training) , it is impossible for Taliban to regroup in a way they have re-grouped.
As a result, Military is forced to act on Tribes/taliban/punjab militants to support the war on terror and to satisfy USA.
The Key questions are
a> Who asked Punjab militants to go and create havoc in NWFP/Balochistan/Afghan border? Is it Military or ISI or lying low for a while when taking peace with India ( but using their expertise somewhere else)
It attracted US's attention and just forces Pak Military to do more and more..
With this Mumbai attack, what the ISI supported militants expected is a war between India and Pakistan. Military sees an escape route too.
When a war breaks out,
Tension on the Eastern border comes down to a nought. Taliban, Tribes, Punjab Militants, ISI and the military are ALL on the same side and India is the enemy. US would be a spectator. It unites the nation of Pakistan like nothing else.
It reduces the pressure on the military. Military can wash from its hands the responsbility of being the ally in 'war on terror'
I agree with you to a great extent. The Pakistani society is fractured right now, and there is nothing to unite the country than a conflict with India.
Where I disagree with you is when you think that this is the calculus of the Pakistan army. I think the senior army (and civilian) leadership in Pakistan knows the Kargil episode too well. Kargil is fresh in their memories, and they know that a conflict with India is not worth the costs. Plus, if we are to assume that the Pakistan army was behind the 2001 Parliament attack, then again we know that the Pakistan army had to back down that time too....So, unless the Pakistan army is run by Beavis and Butthead who repeatedly touch a hot object and go 'ouch...ouch....ouch...ouch...ouch...', there is no reason for them to do this.....
So I think, that its the militant elements that are being squeezed by the Pakistan army and NATO, and not the the Pakistan army, that pulled this off.
(I must also add that I have a bias to believe that; thats just natural.) Everytime we see Indian and Pakistani relations improving, something blows up somewhere, and things are back to square one.
I generally dont try to be emotional. But I saw this live on TV while I was waiting in the airport to board my flight
from India to US and it impacted me profoundly. Man, "Enough is enough"...
Peace,
G
I wonder if you attribute any of that to the media coverage of the event. Especially the 'live tv' aspect of it.
I don't think a bomb blast with the same number of casualties would have had this much impact.
I also think the media could have acted more responsibly than it did. I was somewhat disappointed by Pakistani media. I think there was too much bias and not so much objectivity in the coverage. I am afraid the Indian media would have acted in a similar manner too....
Obama is planning to increase troops in Afghanistan. US is now doing cross-border attacks in pakistan. When he increases the troop level, it would only increase further hitting the core soverignity of pakistan.
The supercop is completely preoccupied in transition with the messiah of hope taking oath on jan 20th. It would need few weeks for him to settle down.
Pakistan is fractured with ISI's own trained militants causing havoc in Balochistan and NWFP. They are militants from Punjab and POK who are helping the tribes and Taliban. Taliban is hiding for the past 7 years and only the last two year have seen such a tremendous increase in attacks.
Without Punjab militant's expertise (with kashmir on-the-job training) , it is impossible for Taliban to regroup in a way they have re-grouped.
As a result, Military is forced to act on Tribes/taliban/punjab militants to support the war on terror and to satisfy USA.
The Key questions are
a> Who asked Punjab militants to go and create havoc in NWFP/Balochistan/Afghan border? Is it Military or ISI or lying low for a while when taking peace with India ( but using their expertise somewhere else)
It attracted US's attention and just forces Pak Military to do more and more..
With this Mumbai attack, what the ISI supported militants expected is a war between India and Pakistan. Military sees an escape route too.
When a war breaks out,
Tension on the Eastern border comes down to a nought. Taliban, Tribes, Punjab Militants, ISI and the military are ALL on the same side and India is the enemy. US would be a spectator. It unites the nation of Pakistan like nothing else.
It reduces the pressure on the military. Military can wash from its hands the responsbility of being the ally in 'war on terror'
I agree with you to a great extent. The Pakistani society is fractured right now, and there is nothing to unite the country than a conflict with India.
Where I disagree with you is when you think that this is the calculus of the Pakistan army. I think the senior army (and civilian) leadership in Pakistan knows the Kargil episode too well. Kargil is fresh in their memories, and they know that a conflict with India is not worth the costs. Plus, if we are to assume that the Pakistan army was behind the 2001 Parliament attack, then again we know that the Pakistan army had to back down that time too....So, unless the Pakistan army is run by Beavis and Butthead who repeatedly touch a hot object and go 'ouch...ouch....ouch...ouch...ouch...', there is no reason for them to do this.....
So I think, that its the militant elements that are being squeezed by the Pakistan army and NATO, and not the the Pakistan army, that pulled this off.
(I must also add that I have a bias to believe that; thats just natural.) Everytime we see Indian and Pakistani relations improving, something blows up somewhere, and things are back to square one.
I generally dont try to be emotional. But I saw this live on TV while I was waiting in the airport to board my flight
from India to US and it impacted me profoundly. Man, "Enough is enough"...
Peace,
G
I wonder if you attribute any of that to the media coverage of the event. Especially the 'live tv' aspect of it.
I don't think a bomb blast with the same number of casualties would have had this much impact.
I also think the media could have acted more responsibly than it did. I was somewhat disappointed by Pakistani media. I think there was too much bias and not so much objectivity in the coverage. I am afraid the Indian media would have acted in a similar manner too....
hot Ronaldo vs Messiquot; fight,
pmpforgc
06-09 08:22 AM
I had looked around Alpharetta, cumming, Suwanee, Duluth etc. for new as well as recent houses.
I agree with Hiralal that prices have come down in all these area a lot compared to past.
In alphareeta in 200-300K you can get any new house you want. But not much new construction in that area because of lack of space. You can even get in Johns creek in that price range, which most costliest area in the north. Lot of new construction in the cumming. Not much new in the Suwanee as well as Duluth too.
You can hardly get a decent big and recent (relatively new) house below 200K in any of these area (not town home) unless it is foreclosure. I got in 175Kbecause it was foreclosure.
PM me if you need to talk and you are in market to buy new home. I can share my experiences.
thanks
I agree with Hiralal that prices have come down in all these area a lot compared to past.
In alphareeta in 200-300K you can get any new house you want. But not much new construction in that area because of lack of space. You can even get in Johns creek in that price range, which most costliest area in the north. Lot of new construction in the cumming. Not much new in the Suwanee as well as Duluth too.
You can hardly get a decent big and recent (relatively new) house below 200K in any of these area (not town home) unless it is foreclosure. I got in 175Kbecause it was foreclosure.
PM me if you need to talk and you are in market to buy new home. I can share my experiences.
thanks
more...
house Both Ronaldo and Messi are two
puddonhead
06-26 01:48 PM
If you spend the rest of your life renting, the risk is 100%�you end up with nothing. I will take my chances investing my money in buying a home because its certainly better than losing 100%.
If you buy - and take a mortgate - you end up losing (the same way you "lose" your rent)
1. Interest you pay
2. Property taxes you will pay forever.
3. Maintenance you will pay forever.
On the other hand - if you rent and,
A. IF you pay less in rent than #1 + #2 + #3,
B. IF you invest the remainder plus your mortgage principal amount in some other investment vehicle with superior investment returns than real estate.
.... Then you will come out ahead renting.
The tipping point is whether your rent equals interest + property taxes + maintenance. Based on which side is higher - either renting or buying could be good for you. I don't think there is a clear cut answer. This does not take into account the flexibility associated with renting - which is important for non-GC holders. If you assign a non-zero dollar value of $X with that flexibility, then your rent needs to be interest + tax + maintanance + $X to get to the tipping point. On the other hand, if you are not forced to save (in the form of mortgage principal payment every month) - you may just spend that money instead of investing that. If you assign a dollar value of $Y with that (probability multiplied by actual dollar value) - then the tipping point is at
$rent = $interest + $tax + $maintenance + $X(dollar value for flexibility) - $Y(dollar value for probability of spending money instead of saving).
Now as soon as you plug in the numbers in this equation - it will give you your tipping point and will tell you whether it is right for you to rent or to buy.
Think about it. It is not as clear cut as you think it is. :-) Based on your earlier posts - you got an absolutely faboulous deal on your house (maybe because of your timing) and the tipping point equation would probably highly favor buying in your case. For many other (specially for those without a GC) - it may not be so clear cut.
If you buy - and take a mortgate - you end up losing (the same way you "lose" your rent)
1. Interest you pay
2. Property taxes you will pay forever.
3. Maintenance you will pay forever.
On the other hand - if you rent and,
A. IF you pay less in rent than #1 + #2 + #3,
B. IF you invest the remainder plus your mortgage principal amount in some other investment vehicle with superior investment returns than real estate.
.... Then you will come out ahead renting.
The tipping point is whether your rent equals interest + property taxes + maintenance. Based on which side is higher - either renting or buying could be good for you. I don't think there is a clear cut answer. This does not take into account the flexibility associated with renting - which is important for non-GC holders. If you assign a non-zero dollar value of $X with that flexibility, then your rent needs to be interest + tax + maintanance + $X to get to the tipping point. On the other hand, if you are not forced to save (in the form of mortgage principal payment every month) - you may just spend that money instead of investing that. If you assign a dollar value of $Y with that (probability multiplied by actual dollar value) - then the tipping point is at
$rent = $interest + $tax + $maintenance + $X(dollar value for flexibility) - $Y(dollar value for probability of spending money instead of saving).
Now as soon as you plug in the numbers in this equation - it will give you your tipping point and will tell you whether it is right for you to rent or to buy.
Think about it. It is not as clear cut as you think it is. :-) Based on your earlier posts - you got an absolutely faboulous deal on your house (maybe because of your timing) and the tipping point equation would probably highly favor buying in your case. For many other (specially for those without a GC) - it may not be so clear cut.
tattoo C Ronaldo Vs Kaka Vs Messi Vs
vdixit
03-26 03:15 PM
I am still confused about the whole GC issue in buying and selling a home. Why is GC an issue in owing property or even taking overseas vacations? I have done both with absolutely no issues-caribbeans, europe, India. I have owned a home, and then decided to change jobs-move to a different city and sell my house. Heck I sold my house when I was on vacation in India. I did everything by phone and fax, and this is not some few years ago, this is 2 months ago.
I totally agree with the fact that location and the condition of the house being the key factors. Maybe the fact that I have been here for a few years makes me resident alien for tax purposes helped me? I am not entirely sure.
Folks mentioned that what if you lose your job, and have to leave the country etc. But like I mentioned a house can be sold from abroad. And if you have a GC and you lose ur job, how will you make mortgage payments etc. So some problems will stay the same.
Any thoughts/comments on my dilema?
Perhaps someone can elaborate on why GC is a factor?
Cheers.
I totally agree with the fact that location and the condition of the house being the key factors. Maybe the fact that I have been here for a few years makes me resident alien for tax purposes helped me? I am not entirely sure.
Folks mentioned that what if you lose your job, and have to leave the country etc. But like I mentioned a house can be sold from abroad. And if you have a GC and you lose ur job, how will you make mortgage payments etc. So some problems will stay the same.
Any thoughts/comments on my dilema?
Perhaps someone can elaborate on why GC is a factor?
Cheers.
more...
pictures by RONALDINHO VS MESSI VS
JunRN
06-06 12:02 AM
What if a builder offer you a new home with a fixed monthly mortgage that is equal to or lower than your monthly rental on similarly sized home at same zip code, will you take it?
note: Given that you will get $8k stimulus money to recover your downpayment.
note: Given that you will get $8k stimulus money to recover your downpayment.
dresses lionel messi vs ronaldo.
ak27
01-28 09:54 AM
Lou Dobbs has found an audience who oppose any form of immigration. Lou picks and choose facts which support his point of view and no one at CNN is stopping him because his ratings have gone up with his rant...
more...
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Arjun
07-14 08:42 PM
Still better abolish Eb1/ Eb2/ Eb3 when there is no EBx in H1 then why EBx in GC? come on guys stratification on EB is reality along with preference order set by CIS. What is stopping eb3 guys from moving to eb2?
you know what it takes to do that. Just think, if you were in eb3 and had applied in 2001 and now suggested to start all over again. It is very easy to say go change your category.
you know what it takes to do that. Just think, if you were in eb3 and had applied in 2001 and now suggested to start all over again. It is very easy to say go change your category.
girlfriend 2011 messi vs ronaldo vs kaka
Macaca
12-28 07:29 PM
Flashy Office Space, Advertising India�s Allure (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/28/business/global/28sizzle.html) By VIKAS BAJAJ | New York Times
A massive futuristic office complex is rising from a patch of spare, arid land here near the southern Indian city of Chennai. Six butterfly-shaped buildings dock like spacecraft to two long metal-latticed terminals.
About 12,000 people already work at the campus, being built by India�s largest technology company, Tata Consultancy Services. It eventually will have space for 24,000 of Tata�s nearly 180,000 employees.
Meanwhile Infosys, one of Tata�s biggest competitors, has added a corporate campus for 15,000 employees with buildings that resemble the Parthenon, the Coliseum and the Louvre�s glass pyramid. Infosys plans to build an additional 10 million square feet of custom office space by mid-2012, at various sites, adding 25,000 workers to its current 122,000.
It is all part of a construction spree by India�s outsourcing companies, which are growing at a breakneck pace after the lull caused by the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009.
But the building boom is about more than making room for more workers.
The outsourcing giants, which include Wipro and others, hope that architectural sizzle can help them compete for the nation�s top software programmers, while also burnishing their reputations with overseas clients and prospective customers.
In this nation where world-class high-tech companies co-exist with urban slums and rural poverty, employers like Tata, Infosys and Wipro have set out to create avant-garde, environmentally smart corporate sanctuaries.
And even if some architects and critics complain about the wisdom and taste of the efforts, the executives behind the building boom say their ambitious projects put a modern face on Indian business.
T. V. Mohandas Pai, a director at Infosys, which has 15 campuses around India, said his company�s eclectic mix of designs from all over the world reflected this nation�s inclusive sensibility. �One singular thing is monotonous,� he said. �In India, we are a colorful people.�
Like China a decade earlier, India appears to be at that phase of economic development where buildings are meant to help advertise the nation�s arrival on the world stage. But unlike China, where the government and state-owned corporations took the lead, private companies in India have headed the charge � not the government, which struggles to execute even basic construction projects.
And within India�s business world, technology companies have been more adventurous than others, perhaps because of their outsize financial success and their need to hire tens of thousands of workers to write software for foreign clients. State and federal governments are aiding the effort by offering these companies generous tax incentives and choice pieces of real estate to build big campuses.
Competition for employees is intense, because while India produces about 500,000 engineers every year, most colleges provide such poor education that the industry says that just a quarter of graduates are employable. But among those most qualified � typically graduates of elite places like the Indian Institutes of Technology and Birla Institute of Technology and Science � as many as 18 percent leave for other jobs every year. The outsourcing companies see lavish, environmentally friendly campuses as a way to help attract and retain the best and brightest workers.
With their manicured lawns, power generators and lakes, the campuses are a noticeable improvement on most engineering colleges, which suffer from India�s standard infrastructure deficiencies � blackouts, water shortages and poor maintenance.
�I prefer a big campus,� said Aditya Mathur, a software engineer, 23, who joined Wipro a year ago, and now works at a four-year-old office in Gurgaon, south of New Delhi, as a software tester. �The facilities are better in a big campus.�
Tata Consultancy Services � or T.C.S., as the company is known � is spending $200 million on its Siruseri campus and has hired the Uruguayan-born Canadian architect Carlos A. Ott, who designed the opera house on the Place de la Bastille in Paris. The company is also building big campuses in Ahemdabad, Pune, Calcutta and Hyderabad.
But some critics say that too many of the industry�s new complexes are intended to make a big splash without much thought of how they will function and fit into the local surroundings.
�It is a haphazard reaching for something that will quickly make a statement about the place being world class,� said Himanshu Burte, an architecture critic who writes frequently for Indian newspapers.
But Rahul Mehrotra, a prominent architect who has designed an office building for Hewlett-Packard in Bangalore, the city at the heart of India�s technology industry, argued that rather than being outr�, too many Indian tech campuses had a hackneyed feel, evoking the sprawling suburban campuses of Silicon Valley or American companies like Google and Apple.
�The architecture in these cases symbolizes the fact that these are places of outsourcing, not cutting-edge research,� said Mr. Mehrotra, who lives in Mumbai and Boston.
Mr. Pai of Infosys said he was unconcerned about such criticism. He said the people who mattered to the company � employees and customers � raved about its buildings, particularly those that resembled landmarks like the Coliseum at its new campus in the city of Mysore. �They like the fact that it�s so diverse,� he said.
Infosys probably set the standard for ambitious corporate campuses in India more than a decade ago. Many other companies grew helter-skelter wherever they could find space. But Infosys started building large complexes, beginning with its first campus on the southern edge of Bangalore, its home city, in 1995, just a few years after India started to open its economy to the rest of the world.
That first campus, which, after many expansions, can now accommodate 24,000 people, was considered cutting-edge for creating an ordered oasis of lawns and lakes in the midst of the urban chaos that envelops most commercial areas in India. The complex also established the company�s quirky style � with a glass pyramid for an auditorium and a building that resembles a washing machine � and helped set a benchmark for big campuses in the technology industry.
Mr. Pai, who determined the overall layout of the campuses with the company�s chairman, N. R. Narayana Murthy, said Infosys was determined to make every new campus �better than our last campus.�
Their rules include the tenet that no two buildings should look alike. Another audacious goal is that every campus should become a �carbon sink� in the next five years. In other words, trees, lakes and other natural features should absorb more carbon than is generated by the campus.
Some other firms, like Wipro, tend to be more understated, opting for standard-looking office buildings. But even these companies have trademark causes. Wipro prides itself on minimizing the use of power and, especially, water. It recycles water and creates lakes to harvest the rain. At one of its campuses in Bangalore, a training center appears to float on one of these reservoirs.
T.C.S., based in Mumbai, has long had significant operations in and around Chennai, the city formerly known as Madras, which is on the Bay of Bengal. But N. Chandrasekaran, chief executive of T.C.S., said the company previously had too many buildings arbitrarily sprinkled around that region.
The new Siruseri campus, 18 miles south of Chennai, is meant to help consolidate some of those outposts and give employees a sense of place and pride of ownership. �We had multiple buildings and we felt that we should have a campus where employees will feel empowerment, will feel good about working,� he said �and at the same time we have a place to host clients.�
For at least some employees, the plan seems to be succeeding.
Deenathajalan Sugumar, who works in production support, recently moved to the new T.C.S. campus in Siruseri from a smaller building in Chennai. He gushed about the campus, even though he now commutes by a company bus for more than an hour every day, more than double his previous travel time.
�It�s my home,� Mr. Sugumar, 24, said. �It�s my company.�
The Outsourcing Battle (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/12/28/business/global/20101228-sizzle-ss.html) New York Times
A massive futuristic office complex is rising from a patch of spare, arid land here near the southern Indian city of Chennai. Six butterfly-shaped buildings dock like spacecraft to two long metal-latticed terminals.
About 12,000 people already work at the campus, being built by India�s largest technology company, Tata Consultancy Services. It eventually will have space for 24,000 of Tata�s nearly 180,000 employees.
Meanwhile Infosys, one of Tata�s biggest competitors, has added a corporate campus for 15,000 employees with buildings that resemble the Parthenon, the Coliseum and the Louvre�s glass pyramid. Infosys plans to build an additional 10 million square feet of custom office space by mid-2012, at various sites, adding 25,000 workers to its current 122,000.
It is all part of a construction spree by India�s outsourcing companies, which are growing at a breakneck pace after the lull caused by the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009.
But the building boom is about more than making room for more workers.
The outsourcing giants, which include Wipro and others, hope that architectural sizzle can help them compete for the nation�s top software programmers, while also burnishing their reputations with overseas clients and prospective customers.
In this nation where world-class high-tech companies co-exist with urban slums and rural poverty, employers like Tata, Infosys and Wipro have set out to create avant-garde, environmentally smart corporate sanctuaries.
And even if some architects and critics complain about the wisdom and taste of the efforts, the executives behind the building boom say their ambitious projects put a modern face on Indian business.
T. V. Mohandas Pai, a director at Infosys, which has 15 campuses around India, said his company�s eclectic mix of designs from all over the world reflected this nation�s inclusive sensibility. �One singular thing is monotonous,� he said. �In India, we are a colorful people.�
Like China a decade earlier, India appears to be at that phase of economic development where buildings are meant to help advertise the nation�s arrival on the world stage. But unlike China, where the government and state-owned corporations took the lead, private companies in India have headed the charge � not the government, which struggles to execute even basic construction projects.
And within India�s business world, technology companies have been more adventurous than others, perhaps because of their outsize financial success and their need to hire tens of thousands of workers to write software for foreign clients. State and federal governments are aiding the effort by offering these companies generous tax incentives and choice pieces of real estate to build big campuses.
Competition for employees is intense, because while India produces about 500,000 engineers every year, most colleges provide such poor education that the industry says that just a quarter of graduates are employable. But among those most qualified � typically graduates of elite places like the Indian Institutes of Technology and Birla Institute of Technology and Science � as many as 18 percent leave for other jobs every year. The outsourcing companies see lavish, environmentally friendly campuses as a way to help attract and retain the best and brightest workers.
With their manicured lawns, power generators and lakes, the campuses are a noticeable improvement on most engineering colleges, which suffer from India�s standard infrastructure deficiencies � blackouts, water shortages and poor maintenance.
�I prefer a big campus,� said Aditya Mathur, a software engineer, 23, who joined Wipro a year ago, and now works at a four-year-old office in Gurgaon, south of New Delhi, as a software tester. �The facilities are better in a big campus.�
Tata Consultancy Services � or T.C.S., as the company is known � is spending $200 million on its Siruseri campus and has hired the Uruguayan-born Canadian architect Carlos A. Ott, who designed the opera house on the Place de la Bastille in Paris. The company is also building big campuses in Ahemdabad, Pune, Calcutta and Hyderabad.
But some critics say that too many of the industry�s new complexes are intended to make a big splash without much thought of how they will function and fit into the local surroundings.
�It is a haphazard reaching for something that will quickly make a statement about the place being world class,� said Himanshu Burte, an architecture critic who writes frequently for Indian newspapers.
But Rahul Mehrotra, a prominent architect who has designed an office building for Hewlett-Packard in Bangalore, the city at the heart of India�s technology industry, argued that rather than being outr�, too many Indian tech campuses had a hackneyed feel, evoking the sprawling suburban campuses of Silicon Valley or American companies like Google and Apple.
�The architecture in these cases symbolizes the fact that these are places of outsourcing, not cutting-edge research,� said Mr. Mehrotra, who lives in Mumbai and Boston.
Mr. Pai of Infosys said he was unconcerned about such criticism. He said the people who mattered to the company � employees and customers � raved about its buildings, particularly those that resembled landmarks like the Coliseum at its new campus in the city of Mysore. �They like the fact that it�s so diverse,� he said.
Infosys probably set the standard for ambitious corporate campuses in India more than a decade ago. Many other companies grew helter-skelter wherever they could find space. But Infosys started building large complexes, beginning with its first campus on the southern edge of Bangalore, its home city, in 1995, just a few years after India started to open its economy to the rest of the world.
That first campus, which, after many expansions, can now accommodate 24,000 people, was considered cutting-edge for creating an ordered oasis of lawns and lakes in the midst of the urban chaos that envelops most commercial areas in India. The complex also established the company�s quirky style � with a glass pyramid for an auditorium and a building that resembles a washing machine � and helped set a benchmark for big campuses in the technology industry.
Mr. Pai, who determined the overall layout of the campuses with the company�s chairman, N. R. Narayana Murthy, said Infosys was determined to make every new campus �better than our last campus.�
Their rules include the tenet that no two buildings should look alike. Another audacious goal is that every campus should become a �carbon sink� in the next five years. In other words, trees, lakes and other natural features should absorb more carbon than is generated by the campus.
Some other firms, like Wipro, tend to be more understated, opting for standard-looking office buildings. But even these companies have trademark causes. Wipro prides itself on minimizing the use of power and, especially, water. It recycles water and creates lakes to harvest the rain. At one of its campuses in Bangalore, a training center appears to float on one of these reservoirs.
T.C.S., based in Mumbai, has long had significant operations in and around Chennai, the city formerly known as Madras, which is on the Bay of Bengal. But N. Chandrasekaran, chief executive of T.C.S., said the company previously had too many buildings arbitrarily sprinkled around that region.
The new Siruseri campus, 18 miles south of Chennai, is meant to help consolidate some of those outposts and give employees a sense of place and pride of ownership. �We had multiple buildings and we felt that we should have a campus where employees will feel empowerment, will feel good about working,� he said �and at the same time we have a place to host clients.�
For at least some employees, the plan seems to be succeeding.
Deenathajalan Sugumar, who works in production support, recently moved to the new T.C.S. campus in Siruseri from a smaller building in Chennai. He gushed about the campus, even though he now commutes by a company bus for more than an hour every day, more than double his previous travel time.
�It�s my home,� Mr. Sugumar, 24, said. �It�s my company.�
The Outsourcing Battle (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/12/28/business/global/20101228-sizzle-ss.html) New York Times
hairstyles messi v ronaldo
mbawa2574
03-25 11:12 PM
Ok, so everytime I see a rent vs buy discussion I see apartment living compared with living in a house. This may not apply to a lot of other places but here's how it goes in SF Bay Area:
Rental
Apartment: Decent sized 2 Bed/2 Bath --- $1600 pm
House : Decent sized 3 bed/2.5 bath --- $2000 pm
Mortgage:
House : Decent sized 3 bed/2.5 bath --- $3500 pm
So, is additional 1500 pm worth the money? Why not rent a house? What's the point of trying to get into a sliding market when even Greenspan can't say where the bottom is?
I am in a decent sized apartment right now and if I have to upgrade its a rental house. Buying in a sliding real estate market doesn't make sense to me.
Dude you are missing on the tax savings part of the game. U need to take it into account. Specially if you are making 100k + . Buying a house will save you big on taxes for first couple of years since interest is tax deductible. For couple of years interest is the major part of your payment.
Also people suggesting that this is not a great time to buy, then what would be ?There are bargains in the market. A Good investor never buys a property when prices touch the roof. U wanna buy right on the bottom. Also risk factors depends on markets and geography where u are looking. NY metro,CA (San Fran & LA), New England area are the best places to buy as job markets are diversified and markets have potential to sustain ups and downs. Property prices have tanked just 10 points and have already corrected pretty much in good neighborhoods and there is inventory sitting on the market with great deals . U cannot compare apples with oranges. Hence Detroit,Ohio etc have no comparison to these progressive markets I mentioned earlier. Also governments don't cut new lots at the same rate in these states as compared to other US markets keeping the prices more or less stable.
On NJ- I have not seen a single Native born American liking the state. It is considered most corrupt state in the union but still pretty much rich people live in NJ including our friend Lou Dobbs :-) He curses NJ almost once in a month on his show and lives in a 300 acre farm house in the same state. So I will rather ignore the comments posted about NJ in earlier post.
Rental
Apartment: Decent sized 2 Bed/2 Bath --- $1600 pm
House : Decent sized 3 bed/2.5 bath --- $2000 pm
Mortgage:
House : Decent sized 3 bed/2.5 bath --- $3500 pm
So, is additional 1500 pm worth the money? Why not rent a house? What's the point of trying to get into a sliding market when even Greenspan can't say where the bottom is?
I am in a decent sized apartment right now and if I have to upgrade its a rental house. Buying in a sliding real estate market doesn't make sense to me.
Dude you are missing on the tax savings part of the game. U need to take it into account. Specially if you are making 100k + . Buying a house will save you big on taxes for first couple of years since interest is tax deductible. For couple of years interest is the major part of your payment.
Also people suggesting that this is not a great time to buy, then what would be ?There are bargains in the market. A Good investor never buys a property when prices touch the roof. U wanna buy right on the bottom. Also risk factors depends on markets and geography where u are looking. NY metro,CA (San Fran & LA), New England area are the best places to buy as job markets are diversified and markets have potential to sustain ups and downs. Property prices have tanked just 10 points and have already corrected pretty much in good neighborhoods and there is inventory sitting on the market with great deals . U cannot compare apples with oranges. Hence Detroit,Ohio etc have no comparison to these progressive markets I mentioned earlier. Also governments don't cut new lots at the same rate in these states as compared to other US markets keeping the prices more or less stable.
On NJ- I have not seen a single Native born American liking the state. It is considered most corrupt state in the union but still pretty much rich people live in NJ including our friend Lou Dobbs :-) He curses NJ almost once in a month on his show and lives in a 300 acre farm house in the same state. So I will rather ignore the comments posted about NJ in earlier post.
yagw
08-08 12:41 AM
Wonderful thread... keep it flowing folks... :)
here are some yogi's quotes:
"This is like deja vu all over again."
"You can observe a lot just by watching."
"You've got to be very careful if you don't know where you're going, because you might not get there."
"If you don't know where you are going, you will wind up somewhere else."
"You better cut the pizza in four pieces because I'm not hungry enough to eat six."
"Baseball is 90% mental -- the other half is physical."
"If you come to a fork in the road, take it."
"I made a wrong mistake."
"Nobody goes there anymore; it's too crowded."
and now the best one...
"I didn't really say everything I said."
here are some yogi's quotes:
"This is like deja vu all over again."
"You can observe a lot just by watching."
"You've got to be very careful if you don't know where you're going, because you might not get there."
"If you don't know where you are going, you will wind up somewhere else."
"You better cut the pizza in four pieces because I'm not hungry enough to eat six."
"Baseball is 90% mental -- the other half is physical."
"If you come to a fork in the road, take it."
"I made a wrong mistake."
"Nobody goes there anymore; it's too crowded."
and now the best one...
"I didn't really say everything I said."
hiralal
06-04 10:07 PM
here is a good point about long term housing prospects. I for one am glad that GC delay saved me from buying a house.
this is from an article
------------------------------------
Why do I think housing is in the tank for the long term?
First, I listen to people smarter than I am - a key to success from investing to recreation league baseball. When my rec team had its first losing season - after twelve consecutive great seasons (two per year) I did the logical and hired a professional coach. They were winners the next season. Ditto for analyzing stuff - and I follow Ivy Zelman and Whitney Tilson. They have been dead on about the mortgage meltdown - and see a larger one coming.
Listening to them, reading data and being objective has led me to see the key to a rebound in housing is clearing inventory - too much supply and too little demand, and since lower than five percent interest rates have not spurred buying, supply is the issue. Supply comes from the sale of existing homes, the sale of new homes, and the sale of foreclosed homes.
* Typically ten to fifteen percent of Americans sell or want to sell their home in a given year. Recent survey data shows the number is now 30%. Keep that in mind.
* New home sales are incredibly low. Market wisdom said home building stocks would rise once the new housing start rate hit a million and inventory became tight. New home starts are roughly half of that and there ain't no rebound. As the poet said, times, they be a changing.
* People are not selling, and builders are not building, not just because people are not buying - it is because prices are low and going lower and the driver here is foreclosures. Data can be found here, there and everywhere but the salient data points are a) banks are accelerating foreclosures, b) the next wave of resets of mortgages, the cause of most foreclosures, does not peak until the summer of 2011, c) banks are already sitting on more than half a million homes they have not listed for sale, and the whopper is d) the New York Times has reported that there are nineteen million empty housing units and only six million are listed for sale.
This last point, when combined with another couple of million foreclosed homes, then with desire for people wanting to sell their home as soon as they can, means excess inventory for as far as the eye can see. I originally projected housing prices would, nationally, bottom at the end of 2011 and prices would begin to pick up in mid 2012. I may have been premature. With resets peaking in mid defaults will probably peak in early Q4 2011; this means foreclosure listings will peak in mid-summer 2012, after the peak selling season, not good for managing down inventory. Assuming demand picks up - a near heroic assumption at this time as interest rates will be higher and unemployment could be the same or higher at that time - you will start to see inventory declining in a meaningful way until 2013 at the earliest.
I have focused on supply - was I too cavalier about demand? Well, that is more problematic - resets, defaults and foreclosures are fourth grade math and although the only thing I knew about housing was my own mortgage before this mess started, I can do fourth grade math and every forecast I have made about foreclosures and inventory has been right within a 30-45 day period.
Using fourth grade math as our primary tool does have value in estimating demand. Roughly 40% of demand in the peak year - 2006 - was sub-prime or near sub-prime - and these buyers are out of the market for a considerable period of time. And a very large percentage - some analysts estimate as high as a third - of all sales were for investment and second homes. Most of this demand is gone for the foreseeable future. Add tightening credit standards, recession ravaged incomes and personal balance sheets, and a new frugality and it is hard to see demand in 2013 or 2014 climbing past 50% of demand in 2006. Even if the FHA does not go bust - which it will, requiring another Treasury bailout.
this is from an article
------------------------------------
Why do I think housing is in the tank for the long term?
First, I listen to people smarter than I am - a key to success from investing to recreation league baseball. When my rec team had its first losing season - after twelve consecutive great seasons (two per year) I did the logical and hired a professional coach. They were winners the next season. Ditto for analyzing stuff - and I follow Ivy Zelman and Whitney Tilson. They have been dead on about the mortgage meltdown - and see a larger one coming.
Listening to them, reading data and being objective has led me to see the key to a rebound in housing is clearing inventory - too much supply and too little demand, and since lower than five percent interest rates have not spurred buying, supply is the issue. Supply comes from the sale of existing homes, the sale of new homes, and the sale of foreclosed homes.
* Typically ten to fifteen percent of Americans sell or want to sell their home in a given year. Recent survey data shows the number is now 30%. Keep that in mind.
* New home sales are incredibly low. Market wisdom said home building stocks would rise once the new housing start rate hit a million and inventory became tight. New home starts are roughly half of that and there ain't no rebound. As the poet said, times, they be a changing.
* People are not selling, and builders are not building, not just because people are not buying - it is because prices are low and going lower and the driver here is foreclosures. Data can be found here, there and everywhere but the salient data points are a) banks are accelerating foreclosures, b) the next wave of resets of mortgages, the cause of most foreclosures, does not peak until the summer of 2011, c) banks are already sitting on more than half a million homes they have not listed for sale, and the whopper is d) the New York Times has reported that there are nineteen million empty housing units and only six million are listed for sale.
This last point, when combined with another couple of million foreclosed homes, then with desire for people wanting to sell their home as soon as they can, means excess inventory for as far as the eye can see. I originally projected housing prices would, nationally, bottom at the end of 2011 and prices would begin to pick up in mid 2012. I may have been premature. With resets peaking in mid defaults will probably peak in early Q4 2011; this means foreclosure listings will peak in mid-summer 2012, after the peak selling season, not good for managing down inventory. Assuming demand picks up - a near heroic assumption at this time as interest rates will be higher and unemployment could be the same or higher at that time - you will start to see inventory declining in a meaningful way until 2013 at the earliest.
I have focused on supply - was I too cavalier about demand? Well, that is more problematic - resets, defaults and foreclosures are fourth grade math and although the only thing I knew about housing was my own mortgage before this mess started, I can do fourth grade math and every forecast I have made about foreclosures and inventory has been right within a 30-45 day period.
Using fourth grade math as our primary tool does have value in estimating demand. Roughly 40% of demand in the peak year - 2006 - was sub-prime or near sub-prime - and these buyers are out of the market for a considerable period of time. And a very large percentage - some analysts estimate as high as a third - of all sales were for investment and second homes. Most of this demand is gone for the foreseeable future. Add tightening credit standards, recession ravaged incomes and personal balance sheets, and a new frugality and it is hard to see demand in 2013 or 2014 climbing past 50% of demand in 2006. Even if the FHA does not go bust - which it will, requiring another Treasury bailout.
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